Executive Summary

Q4 FY25 delivered a clean beat: EPS $2.63 (+12.4% YoY) on revenue $3.993B, driven by double‑digit inside and fuel gross profit growth; inside same‑store sales were +1.7% despite a leap-year headwind (~100 bps) and February weather disruption .
Fuel margin was 37.6¢/gal (+1.1¢ YoY) with total fuel gross profit +21.4% YoY, aided by effective pricing in a volatile wholesale backdrop and upstream procurement progress (“fuel 3.0”) .
FY26 outlook: EBITDA +10–12%, inside SSS +2–5%, inside margin ~41%, same‑store fuel gallons -1% to +1%, OpEx +8–10%; board raised dividend 14% to $0.57 (26th consecutive annual increase) .
Catalyst: a material EPS surprise versus consensus (Q4 EPS consensus $1.93 vs actual $2.63; revenue consensus $3.927B vs actual $3.993B) and constructive FY26 capital allocation (targeting ~$125M in buybacks) may drive estimate revisions and sentiment improvement* . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Inside performance: total inside sales +12.4% and inside gross profit +12.5% YoY with inside margin holding at 41.2%; bakery, hot/cold food, and non‑alcoholic beverages led mix .
Fuel execution: same‑store gallons +0.1% and fuel margin 37.6¢/gal; total fuel gross profit +21.4% YoY, helped by wholesale cost dynamics and upstream supply capabilities (“capture a little bit more margin”) .
Strategic progress and balance sheet: record store growth (+270 units), debt/EBITDA 1.9x, liquidity ~$1.2B; dividend increased 14% to $0.57 .

Management quote: “Our team really managed the fuel pricing environment really well… run‑up in wholesale costs in March and then a drop‑off in April… allowed us to capture a little bit more margin.” — CEO Darren Rebelez .

What Went Wrong

Prepared foods margin pressure: Q4 prepared food margin 57.8% (-30 bps YoY), with ~160 bps drag from lower‑margin SEPCO/CEFCO mix, partially offset by lower cheese costs; coffee promotion also diluted margin ~20 bps .
OpEx inflation from growth and insurance: Q4 operating expenses +14.5% YoY, with ~12% from unit growth and ~$4M one‑time Fikes integration; insurance contributed ~3% .
Traffic softness in February: same‑store momentum dipped due to weather and leap day; traffic was “a touch negative” in Q4 but turned positive in March/April cadence .

Financial Results

Core P&L and KPIs – Trend (Oldest → Newest)

Metric	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.947	$3.904	$3.993
Diluted EPS ($)	$4.85	$2.33	$2.63
Inside Same-Store Sales (%)	4.0%	3.7%	1.7%
Inside Margin (%)	42.2%	40.9%	41.2%
Fuel Margin (¢/gal)	40.2¢	36.4¢	37.6¢
Fuel Same-Store Gallons (%)	-0.6%	1.8%	0.1%
Inside Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$619.651	$573.079	$582.396
Fuel Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$312.252	$302.058	$307.836
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$609.679	$670.200	$663.003

Q4 2025 vs Prior Year and Consensus

Metric	Q4 2024	Q4 2025 Actual	Q4 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.600	$3.993	$3.927*
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.34	$2.63	$1.93*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$219.026	$263.017	$236.301*
Inside Margin (%)	41.2%	41.2%	N/A
Fuel Margin (¢/gal)	36.5¢	37.6¢	N/A

Note: Consensus values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

Category ($USD Millions)	Q3 2025 Revenue	Q3 2025 Gross Profit	Q4 2025 Revenue	Q4 2025 Gross Profit
Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage	$397.151	$229.535 (57.8%)	$391.655	$226.406 (57.8%)
Grocery & General Merchandise	$1,003.274	$343.544 (34.2%)	$1,021.938	$355.990 (34.8%)
Fuel	$2,366.822	$302.058 (12.8%)	$2,438.937	$307.836 (12.6%)
Other	$136.386	$37.431 (27.4%)	$140.228	$35.788 (25.5%)
Total	$3,903.633	$912.568 (23.4%)	$3,992.758	$926.020 (23.2%)

Operational Adds

Total fuel gallons sold: 829.761M (Q3), 818.641M (Q4) .
RINs sold: $2.6M (Q3), $4.3M (Q4) .
Store count: 2,904 at 4/30/25 (net +246 YoY) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
EBITDA Growth	FY25 (updated at Q3)	~+11%	N/A	Maintained through FY25 (actual +13.3%)
EBITDA Growth	FY26	N/A	+10% to +12%	New
Inside Same-Store Sales	FY25	+3% to +5%	N/A	Maintained for FY25
Inside Same-Store Sales	FY26	N/A	+2% to +5%	New
Inside Margin	FY25	Comparable to FY24	N/A	Maintained
Inside Margin	FY26	N/A	~41%	New
Same-Store Fuel Gallons	FY25	-1% to +1%	N/A	Maintained
Same-Store Fuel Gallons	FY26	N/A	-1% to +1%	New
Total Operating Expenses	FY25	+11% to +13% incl. $25–$30M one-time	N/A	Maintained
Total Operating Expenses	FY26	N/A	+8% to +10%	Lower growth vs FY25
Net Interest Expense	FY25	~$90M	N/A	Maintained
Net Interest Expense	FY26	N/A	~$110M	Higher vs FY25
Depreciation & Amortization	FY25	~$410M	N/A	Maintained
Depreciation & Amortization	FY26	N/A	~$450M	Higher vs FY25
Capex (PP&E)	FY25	~$500M (Q3 update); ~$550M (Q2 update)	N/A	In-line with updates
Capex (PP&E)	FY26	N/A	~$600M	Higher vs FY25
New Stores	FY25	~270	Actual: 270	Achieved
New Stores	FY26	N/A	≥80 (mix of M&A and new builds)	New
Dividend	FY25	$0.50 (Q3 board approval)	Raised to $0.57	Raised (14%)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)	Current Period (Q4 2025)	Trend
Fuel strategy & upstream procurement	Not detailed in Q2 PR	Strong gallons; SEPCO headwind ~2¢; fuel margin $0.364; early diesel recovery	Margin aided by pricing and upstream procurement; May CPG ~40¢; ongoing ~2¢ CEFCO headwind	Improving margin capture with structural headwind manageable
Prepared foods innovation (wings, sandwiches)	Hot sandwiches performing; margin up YoY	Wings test launched (Des Moines area ~225 stores); positive feedback; sandwiches still double‑digit growth	Wings “encouraging”; prepared foods margin down from mix; plan to build kitchens in SEPCO over time	Continuing innovation; near‑term margin mix dilution from acquired stores
Consumer/macro, tariffs, inflation	Inside SSS +4.0%; low tariff exposure not specified	Low tariff exposure (<5% imports); consumer resilient; weather impacted Feb	Consumer “hanging in”; minimal tariff flow‑through; inflation flat to modest; traffic positive ex‑February	Stable consumer; limited tariff/inflation impact
Tobacco/vape & nicotine alternatives	Not emphasized	Nicotine alternatives +74%; illicit vape hurting vape; reallocation to higher‑margin products	Nicotine pouches +54%; working with manufacturers on enforcement	Mix shift continues to favor margins
Fikes/CEFCO integration, kitchens & supply contracts	Closed Nov 1; guided deal impacts	EBITDA modestly negative in Q3 due to ~$13M one‑time; kitchens conversion over 3–4 years; supply contract ends end‑2026	FY26 accretive to EBITDA, dilutive to EPS; ~2¢ fuel margin headwind; kitchens conversions mostly after FY26; supply contract ends 2026	Integration on track; synergy capture phased, more back‑end loaded
Labor hours & OpEx cadence	Same‑store labor hours -1%	Same‑store labor hours -2%; OpEx mid‑teens H1 FY26, low single‑digits H2 cadence	Modest further labor hour reductions; OpEx mid‑teens Q1–Q2 FY26, then low single digits Q3–Q4	Ongoing efficiency; OpEx cadence normalizes in H2

Management Commentary

“Fuel margins… run‑up in wholesale costs in March and then a subsequent drop‑off in April… allowed us to capture a little bit more margin.” — Darren Rebelez, CEO .
“Prepared foods margin… unfavorably impacted by the lower margin of SEPCO stores by ~160 bps… partially offset by improvements in whey and cheese costs… down 6 cents per pound to $2.06; cheese therefore had an ~15 bps benefit.” — Steve Bramlage, CFO .
“FY2026…the Fikes acquisition will be accretive to EBITDA and diluted to earnings per share… we anticipate approximately $125 million in share repurchases.” — Steve Bramlage, CFO .
“Same‑store labor hour reduction… 12th consecutive quarter… guest satisfaction and team member engagement at all‑time highs.” — Darren Rebelez, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Fuel margin sustainability and CEFCO headwind: Expect ~2¢ drag to persist through FY26; margin tends to expand when retail prices fall faster than wholesale .
Guidance build and synergies: Near‑term synergies from fuel pricing and overhead; in‑store procurement/mix and kitchens largely back‑end weighted due to supply contract and permitting timelines .
Inside sales cadence: February weakness driven by leap day and weather; March +3.7%, April +5%, May within guidance ranges; consumer traffic resilient .
OpEx outlook: Mid‑teens growth in Q1–Q2 FY26 from full‑quarter consolidation of Fikes; drops to low single digits in H2 due to lapping one‑time costs .
Buybacks and capital allocation: ~$125M repurchases in FY26 funded by operating cash; leverage ~2x targeted; dividend raised .

Estimates Context

Q4 FY25 EPS: Actual $2.63 vs consensus $1.93*; Revenue: Actual $3.993B vs consensus $3.927B*; EBITDA: Actual $263.0M vs consensus $236.3M*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
FY25 EPS: Actual $14.64 vs consensus $13.94*; Revenue: Actual $15.941B vs consensus $15.862B*; EBITDA: Actual $1.200B vs consensus $1.180B*. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Implication: Street will likely lift near‑term EPS and margin assumptions; however, FY26 EPS dilution from Fikes (despite EBITDA accretion), OpEx cadence, and inside margin mix (~41%) temper out‑year flow‑through .

Key Takeaways for Investors

The quarter was a high‑quality beat, with broad‑based gross profit strength and disciplined pricing; the EPS surprise versus consensus should spur near‑term estimate revisions* . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Fuel margin execution remains robust despite a structural ~2¢ CEFCO drag; upstream procurement (“fuel 3.0”) offers ongoing upside to gross profit dollars .
Prepared foods margin will be mixed down near term due to acquired formats; kitchens conversions and supply chain transition (contract ends 2026) support medium‑term margin normalization .
FY26 guide balances growth with conservatism: EBITDA +10–12%, inside SSS +2–5%, OpEx +8–10%; buyback (~$125M) adds capital return alongside the 14% dividend increase .
Operational excellence continues (labor hours down; guest/team engagement up), supporting margin resilience and cash generation; FY25 FCF totaled ~$585M per CFO .
Watch cadence: Expect higher OpEx growth in 1H FY26 (full consolidation of Fikes) and normalization in 2H; wings test and food innovation can bolster inside traffic without cannibalizing pizza .
Strategic footprint expansion into Texas/Florida tracking as modeled (higher volume, thinner margins); long runway across legacy white‑space geographies .

Appendix: Additional Q4 and FY25 Data Points

Condensed Statement of Income: Q4 FY25 revenue $3,992.758M; net income $98.307M; interest $27.916M; tax $29.351M; D&A $107.443M .
Balance Sheet: Total assets $8.208B; goodwill $1.245B; property & equipment net $5.413B; total liabilities $4.699B; shareholders’ equity $3.509B .
Cash Flow: FY25 operating cash $1,090.854M; investing cash $(1,726.668)M (incl. acquisitions); financing cash $755.994M .

CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary